Possible scenario
Inflation Narrative Hardens
30% Chance
The finding reinforces the view that tariffs are not only raising import prices but also lifting prices charged by U.S. producers. That makes the inflation impulse harder to dismiss and could lead investors to price a more cautious Federal Reserve path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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