Possible scenario
Talks Drag On
20% Chance
The submitted text becomes a basis for continued negotiation rather than a final agreement. This outcome is plausible because the US still has leverage from tariffs and Vietnam's rising trade surplus, while both sides may want to avoid a public rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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