Possible scenario
Strict Enforcement Deal
25% Chance
A deal is reached, but the main feature is enforcement rather than broad tariff relief. Washington uses Vietnam's large US trade surplus and concerns over Chinese rerouting to impose tougher origin checks, limiting the upside for manufacturers and importers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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