Possible scenario
Deal Signed Soon
45% Chance
Washington accepts most of Hanoi's final text and moves quickly to formalize the trade deal. This is the most likely outcome because both governments have incentives to lock in predictable tariff treatment while preserving the broader US-Vietnam strategic partnership against China.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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