Possible scenario
Russian Grey-Zone Response
25% Chance
Moscow is likely to protest the deployment and may respond through military exercises, cyber activity, GPS interference, or information operations rather than direct confrontation. Such actions would keep Baltic risk elevated while stopping short of a NATO-Russia crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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