Possible scenario
Contained Air Alerts
38% Chance
Saudi air defenses prevent major damage around Riyadh and both sides avoid immediate escalation. Oman and UN channels remain active, while Washington presses for restraint to protect Gulf energy flows.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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