Possible scenario
Militia Resistance Escalates
18% Chance
Hardline Iran-backed factions reject the deadline and test the government's willingness to use force. The risk is not a full Iraqi civil war, but a sharp deterioration involving militia checkpoints, limited clashes, renewed rocket fire or threats to U.S. and Kurdish-linked sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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