Possible scenario
Managed Disarmament Bargain
42% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani uses the June 2027 deadline to force a negotiated reduction in militia autonomy rather than a frontal confrontation. The most likely path is a bargain with Falih al-Fayyadh, Hadi al-Amiri and parts of the Popular Mobilization Forces that trades salaries, legal status and political protection for visible weapons controls.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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