Possible scenario
Deadline Slips Politically
28% Chance
Militia-aligned parties use parliament, the courts and coalition bargaining to dilute or postpone the June 2027 disarmament deadline. This outcome preserves the status quo: the PMF remains formally part of the security state but several Iran-backed factions keep independent chains of command.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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