Possible scenario
Green Momentum Builds
27% Chance
The 22.3-point Green jump is interpreted as evidence that Labour's Gaza problem has hardened into a broader progressive revolt. The Greens lean into anti-Labour campaigning in urban seats, though the Zionism-racism controversy limits their ability to broaden beyond activist-heavy areas.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.