Possible scenario
Russia Contains Damage
28% Chance
Moscow reallocates air-defense assets, repair crews, and spare parts to key southern refineries. The immediate market effect is a partial reversal of energy-risk premium if subsequent attacks cause less lasting damage.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- MPC-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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