Possible scenario
Refinery Attrition Deepens
42% Chance
Ukraine continues prioritizing Russian refining capacity because repeated drone strikes have already pushed throughput to multidecade lows. Ilsky's 130k bpd outage adds to pressure on southern Russian fuel logistics and raises the chance of longer export curbs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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