Possible scenario
Energy Escalation Broadens
20% Chance
Russia treats repeated refinery hits as a strategic threat and escalates against Ukrainian energy infrastructure or regional logistics. This would move the event from a sector disruption toward a wider geopolitical energy-risk repricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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