Possible scenario
Talks Resume, Stall
30% Chance
Negotiators reconvene as planned, but the talks remain procedural and fail to convert the proposed energy pause into a signed arrangement. Russia presses for sanctions relief and limits on Western arms flows, while Ukraine demands enforceable monitoring and security guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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