Broader De-Escalation

A more constructive outcome emerges in which the energy ceasefire becomes a platform for wider negotiations on prisoners, Black Sea security and phased security guarantees for Ukraine. This remains less likely because core territorial disputes and sanctions questions are unresolved, but recent prisoner-swap and ceasefire precedents make it plausible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.