Possible scenario
Refinery Recovery
20% Chance
Outage resolution becomes the key swing factor. If major units restart on schedule, the market prices lower distillate cracks; if repairs slip, the current record pricing lasts longer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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