Possible scenario
Managed Nuclear Thaw
45% Chance
The secret inspection arrangement holds and becomes a narrow confidence-building measure between Washington and Tehran. Qatar remains the financial intermediary, with only interest or tightly controlled humanitarian disbursements moving first rather than the full frozen principal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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