Possible scenario
Limited Technical Compliance
25% Chance
The arrangement survives but remains technical, quiet, and reversible. Tehran allows enough access to avoid a diplomatic rupture, while Washington avoids politically costly sanctions relief beyond the already negotiated interest mechanism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.