Possible scenario
Backlash Stalls Deal
20% Chance
The covert nature of the visits and the asset-interest linkage becomes politically vulnerable in both capitals. The process does not collapse immediately, but implementation slows as U.S. lawmakers, Iranian hardliners, and regional actors object.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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