Possible scenario
Flanagan Holds Edge
42% Chance
Peggy Flanagan remains favored because Minnesota's partisan lean, her polling lead over Michelle Tafoya, and Democratic incumbency infrastructure outweigh one weak fundraising quarter. National Democrats treat the funding gap as a fixable warning rather than evidence of a collapsing race.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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