Possible scenario
Sanctions Backlash
25% Chance
The agreement triggers political resistance in Washington and scrutiny from G-7 capitals because it cuts across earlier Russian energy restrictions. This outcome would not necessarily kill the deal, but it would introduce licensing delays and compliance risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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