F-35 Stalemate Persists

The most likely path is a prolonged negotiation in which Ankara cannot satisfy U.S. demands to neutralize the Russian S-400 system without provoking Moscow. Turkey continues to signal interest in the F-35 program, but Congress and the Pentagon keep the issue tied to verifiable removal or isolation of the S-400 batteries.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.