Possible scenario
Compromise Enables Return
25% Chance
Washington and Ankara find a formula that avoids an outright S-400 transfer while giving the U.S. enough assurance that the Russian system will not be operated near F-35 technology. This could include sealed storage, remote monitoring, or disabling key components under Turkish custody.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+2.6%
- RTX+1.5%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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