Possible scenario
Peer Review Setbacks
25% Chance
A substantial probability remains that some claimed solutions fail conventional mathematical review or are found to depend on unstated assumptions. This would damage OpenAI's scientific credibility but would be contained mostly to the AI sector rather than the broader macro market.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.4%
- NVDA+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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