Possible scenario
ECHR Status Quo Holds
38% Chance
The Commons defeat makes near-term ECHR withdrawal politically unviable. Keir Starmer's government, Labour MPs, Liberal Democrats and the SNP keep the UK inside the convention while the Conservatives struggle to find a parliamentary route for exit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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