Possible scenario
Partisan Escalation
20% Chance
The arrests become a central partisan issue, with congressional hearings, subpoenas, and state-level accusations of voter suppression or lax enforcement. This scenario has somewhat higher market relevance because it could feed uncertainty around election legitimacy and institutional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.