Possible scenario
Federal Checks Expand
40% Chance
The most likely path is that DHS and DOJ use the 151 arrests and 1,620 open cases to justify broader data-sharing with state election officials. Republican-led states cooperate first, while Democratic attorneys general prepare challenges but do not immediately stop the program.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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