Possible scenario
Courts Limit Program
25% Chance
Civil-rights groups and Democratic-led states challenge the use of immigration databases for voter-roll checks. Courts are likely to scrutinize due process, data accuracy, and statutory authority, creating a plausible path for partial injunctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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