Possible scenario
Non-Military Pressure
15% Chance
Iran avoids military action but uses administrative and aviation-safety tools to impose costs on regional governments. This keeps the crisis below the threshold of armed conflict while still creating operational uncertainty for airlines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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