Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Iran's Supreme National Security Council signal lowers the immediate risk of a military or airspace retaliation. Regional governments keep security precautions in place, but the dispute moves toward legal, diplomatic, and aviation-regulatory channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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