Possible scenario
Aviation Isolation Persists
30% Chance
The SNSC rejects military retaliation, but the sanctions regime still isolates Iranian carriers from major regional hubs. The market impact remains concentrated in aviation and travel rather than broader risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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