Possible scenario
Verbal Coordination Holds
38% Chance
Takaichi and Trump align on language that the yen is undervalued but stop short of new market operations. This is the most likely near-term outcome because both governments have already used warnings and want to deter speculation without immediately spending more reserves.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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