Possible scenario
Policy Mix Shifts
20% Chance
Tokyo responds to U.S. pressure by moving beyond intervention language toward a domestic policy adjustment. The emphasis is on making yen strength more durable through Bank of Japan signaling or pro-growth fiscal measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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