Possible scenario
Intervention Risk Rises
27% Chance
The warning to Trump is followed by concrete preparation for renewed yen support. Given the recent history of joint intervention and record Japanese spending, markets treat this as a credible threat rather than routine rhetoric.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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