Possible scenario
Orderly Higher-for-Longer Repricing
38% Chance
The most likely path is an orderly repricing rather than a disorderly Treasury selloff. Investors accept that persistent deficits, sticky services inflation, and the Fed’s September 2026 hike justify a higher long-run term premium.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.9%
- Technology -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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