Possible scenario
Growth Scare Reversal
22% Chance
The yield spike could become self-limiting if tighter financial conditions quickly hit housing, credit, and business confidence. In this scenario, investors rotate back into Treasuries as recession risk rises, even though risk assets remain under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.3%
- Finance -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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