Possible scenario
Movement Broadens
27% Chance
The school blockades become the organizing core for a wider public-sector campaign involving teachers, transport staff and hospital workers. This would echo France's 2023 pension protests and the September 2025 'Block Everything' mobilization, though without yet reaching a national crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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