Possible scenario
Budget Crisis Returns
22% Chance
The public-sector strike collides with France's already fragile debt and deficit politics after the recent downgrade and projected debt surge. Opposition parties including La France Insoumise and Rassemblement National use the unrest to attack the government's budget strategy and threaten another parliamentary showdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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