Possible scenario
Strict Guardrails Persist
18% Chance
The SEC allows ETF trading but reiterates that crypto assets remain investment products, not approved payment tools. This outcome preserves Thailand’s cautious regulatory split: regulated market access for investors, continued limits on real-economy crypto use.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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