Possible scenario
Prolonged Shipping Standoff
23% Chance
Neither side accepts the other's terms, but both avoid a decisive military move. The result is a grinding maritime standoff in which insurance costs, convoy delays, and tanker diversions keep a large risk premium in oil without triggering immediate open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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