Possible scenario
Mediated Reopening Deal
27% Chance
Despite the public US rejection, Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries keep a narrow diplomatic channel open. A temporary oil-transit arrangement is plausible because Iran's closure also hurts China, India, and Gulf states that retain leverage with both sides.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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