Possible scenario
Race Stays Toss-Up
24% Chance
The controversy hardens existing partisan views rather than producing a decisive shift. Hamilton benefits from the current news cycle, but Vance retains enough Republican support to keep the race inside the margin of error.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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