Possible scenario
Sanctions Stalemate Deepens
30% Chance
Iran refuses to transfer the stockpile and offers only limited monitoring, while the E3 move ahead with sanctions reimposition. Russia and China oppose Western pressure, but the dispute remains diplomatic rather than military.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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