Possible scenario
Russian Custody Compromise
40% Chance
Iran accepts a face-saving version of Russia's proposal in which enriched uranium is removed or placed under verifiable Russian custody, while Tehran avoids appearing to surrender its stockpile directly to Washington. Russia, Qatar, and the IAEA become the key implementation channels, giving Europe a reason to delay the harshest sanctions steps.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.