Possible scenario
Nuclear Crisis Escalates
20% Chance
The Russian proposal collapses and Iran signals it will not surrender or freeze its enriched uranium. Israel, the United States, and Gulf states increase warnings and deployments, turning a diplomatic impasse into a sharper security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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