Possible scenario
Settlement After Discovery
38% Chance
The most likely path is that UVU, Turning Point USA, and the Kirk estate continue exchanging blame through pleadings and discovery, then move toward mediation once insurance coverage and security contracts are clarified. None of the parties has a strong incentive to risk a public trial over a politically charged campus assassination.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.