Possible scenario
Fault Decided In Court
27% Chance
If settlement talks fail, the court is likely to let at least some negligence claims proceed because both the host venue and event organizer had roles in planning the UVU appearance. Discovery would focus on rooftop access, threat assessments, security staffing, and written agreements between Utah Valley University and Turning Point USA.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.