Possible scenario
Broader DOJ Case
38% Chance
Federal prosecutors use Lui's arrest to map the procurement network that moved Nvidia AI servers through intermediaries into China. The most likely path is a wider criminal case against brokers and logistics firms, while Nvidia remains a cooperating third party rather than a defendant.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.7%
- SMCI-0.6%
- DELL-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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