Possible scenario
James Is Replaced
28% Chance
A meaningful chance remains that the judge or Hochul concludes James's Trump-related history creates an avoidable appearance problem. Removal would be framed as protecting the rape investigation rather than accepting Trump's political argument.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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