Possible scenario
Oversight Escalates
20% Chance
The litigation expands into discovery over who ordered the use of border security and memorial funds for the advertisements. Congressional Democrats, inspectors general, and outside watchdogs use the ruling to press for records from OMB and involved agencies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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